Energy is the fundamental support for economic and social development, and ensuring energy supply is related to people's clothing, food, housing, and transportation. The recently held executive meeting of the State Council further deployed a package of measures to stabilize the economy, which pointed out that it is necessary to implement local coal production responsibilities, adjust coal mine nuclear production capacity increase policies, and accelerate the handling of coal mine supply guarantee procedures. Another batch of energy projects such as hydropower, coal, and electricity will be started to ensure energy security.

"Energy and electricity are the blood of society, and energy security is essentially to ensure stable supply." Yue Guangxi, an academician of the CAE Member and a researcher of the Department of Thermal Engineering of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with People's Daily Finance and Economics that we should follow the laws of scientific and technological development, promote high-quality coal development, optimize energy distribution, increase oil and gas exploration and development efforts, promote technological progress in traditional energy fields, and improve China's energy security capacity, Optimize the safe, reliable and stable supply of energy.

How to ensure the supply of electricity in the summer when the demand for electricity continues to increase?

Since this year, China has always attached great importance to ensuring the supply and price stability of energy resources. The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 20th clearly pointed out that we should base ourselves on China's national conditions, address new challenges in the external environment, seize key points, strengthen energy supply assurance, take precautions to promote the commencement of energy projects with mature conditions and development needs, and promote the continuous optimization of the energy structure.

According to relevant data, in the first four months of this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 2680.9 billion kWh, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year. In terms of industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 32 billion kWh, up 10.8% year-on-year; The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 1770.4 billion kWh, up 1.9% year-on-year; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 453.1 billion kWh, up 3.1% year-on-year; Domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reached 425.4 billion kWh, up 10.5% year-on-year

As the national temperature continues to rise and the cooling load of air conditioners continues to be released, the demand for electricity in the whole society will continue to increase. The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that by the end of May, the weather in the north and south of China will be completely different. After a brief coolness in the north, the temperature will rise again. The "rainy pattern" continues in most of the south.

Under the dual pressure of high temperature and flood control, what kind of pressure is facing "welcoming the peak and spending the summer"? Some analysts believe that during the peak season of 2022, the overall balance of power supply and demand across the country will be maintained, and the power supply and demand will be tight during peak periods. In some areas, there will be a tight supply and demand during peak hours, and the situation will become more severe in the event of sustained extreme high temperature weather on a large scale.

"The peak of electricity consumption in summer lies in the massive investment in civil air conditioners, the expected increase in electricity consumption for industrial resumption after the control of the epidemic, and the early release of water from reservoirs during the flood season to free up storage capacity, resulting in a decrease in hydropower generation." Yue Guangxi said that it is necessary to follow scientific and economic laws, fully utilize China's energy and power supply network system, boost the confidence of the vast number of engineering and technical personnel in the energy front, and scientifically guarantee the peak summer.

In addition, in terms of energy distribution, energy consumption in the central and eastern regions of China accounts for more than 70% of the national total, while production accounts for less than 30%. Important energy bases are mainly located in the western region. For a long time, a pattern of energy flow has been formed, namely, "transmitting electricity from the west to the east, transporting coal from the north to the south, and transporting gas from the west to the east.".

In Yue Guangxi's view, energy layout is a science that promotes the rational distribution of power plants with different capacities and the stable and effective utilization of power grids, which is of great significance for energy security and efficiency.

How to stabilize the supply of fossil energy in the coal industry during peak seasons?

With the arrival of summer, the traditional peak season for the coal industry to meet the peak and spend the summer is approaching again. With the recent resumption of work and production, the boost in coal demand has also further emerged. Under multiple factors, recent fluctuations in domestic steam coal prices have been upward. On June 5, the main contract price of steam coal on the domestic futures market rose, closing at 881 yuan/ton as of the morning. Previously, on May 31, the main contract reached a maximum price of 896.8 yuan/ton, an increase of over 35% compared to the beginning of the year.

From May 1, the "Notice on Further Improving the Coal Market Price Formation Mechanism" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission was officially implemented, clarifying the reasonable range of medium and long-term trading prices for coal (domestic thermal coal, the same below).

"China's energy and resource endowments determine that coal-fired power generation is the cornerstone of the safe supply of electricity in China. In recent years, China has formed a number of high-quality, high-capacity, and high safety factor large-scale coal mines and state-owned coal mines." Yue Guangxi believes that at present, it is necessary to focus on promoting high-quality and efficient development of coal mines, standardize environmental protection and safety restrictions on coal mining development, form a coal supply and demand relationship with a certain margin, and avoid coal price anomalies.

It is crucial to play the main energy role of coal. In Yue Guangxi's view, renewable energy resources are auxiliary resources, requiring coal-fired power plants as a means of regulation to accommodate a higher proportion of renewable resources. In addition, we should give play to the role of market regulation, rationalize the formation of coal and electricity prices in accordance with market rules, form a coal and electricity price linkage mechanism, improve coal production capacity, and stabilize coal prices.

In addition to the pressure on coal power supply, the instability of international energy markets such as oil and natural gas is also increasing. According to the relevant person in charge of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the global energy market, the growth rate of fossil energy investment is slowing, capacity expansion is limited, and prices continue to rise. The uncertainty and instability existing in trade risks in the international energy market may further increase.

"China is' short of oil and gas', and the impact of instability in the international oil and gas market is manifold. This requires increasing the exploration and development of domestic oil and natural gas, and using oil and natural gas mainly as liquid and gaseous fuels for motor equipment and chemical feedstocks, improving energy efficiency, increasing efforts to enter the world's oil and natural gas exploration and development and market operations, while transforming coal gasification into motor fuel and oil "Strategic reserves of chemicals to reduce the impact of fluctuations in the international energy market." Yue Guangxi said.

Ensuring energy security and stable supply, core technology innovation is the key

Currently, China has established a complete industrial chain of clean energy equipment manufacturing such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power generation, etc. According to the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration, China has successfully developed and manufactured the world's largest hydropower unit with a single unit capacity of 1 million kilowatts, and has the manufacturing capacity of a full range of wind turbines with a maximum single unit capacity of 10 megawatts. Conventional oil and gas exploration and development technology has reached the international advanced level, shale oil and gas exploration and development technology and equipment have significantly improved, and natural gas hydrate trial production has achieved success, Technological progress has become an important force in the transformation of energy development dynamics.

"At present, the bottleneck of traditional energy technology lies in the design and manufacturing field of gas turbines, involving materials, manufacturing processes, design systems, and so on." In Yue Guangxi's view, innovation and progress in science and technology are an important link in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, and it is necessary to take into account the scientific nature, the feasibility of technological engineering, and the economy.

Yue Guangxi said that currently, it is necessary to increase scientific research efforts, develop new renewable resources such as wind, light, water, and biomass energy, promote the realization of carbon reduction and zero carbon goals for fossil energy, and accelerate the economic evaluation of engineering demonstrations to make it possible to promote and implement them on a large scale.

In recent years, China's new energy industry has developed steadily. According to relevant data, by the end of 2021, the country's installed power generation capacity was 237692 million kilowatts, an increase of 7.9% compared to the end of the previous year. Among them, the installed capacity of thermal power was 1296.78 million kilowatts, an increase of 4.1%. In 2021, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in China reached a historic breakthrough of 1 billion kilowatts, with hydropower, wind power, solar power generation, and biomass power generation firmly ranking first in the world.

"At present, the proportion of wind, light, and hydropower in the power system in China is gradually increasing, and it is necessary to ensure the safety and stability of power supply. The practical approach is to increase the capacity and reduce the amount of coal fired by increasing the power generation capacity of coal, wind, photovoltaic, and hydropower. Yue Guangxi believes that this requires the transformation of the functional role of coal based power from on-load to peak shaving, and the realization of intelligent dispatching of the power grid. Here are a series of technical challenges.". The purpose is to improve the acceptance of a large proportion of new energy in the power system and reduce the carbon dioxide emissions caused by fossil fuels. (People's Daily)